Windows on ARM – Follow the leader

If Samsung can’t sell Windows RT, no one can.

• Samsung is pulling Windows RT from Europe and I am certain that the rest of the PC market will follow.
• This confirms what I have feared since last summer.
• Until there is no discernable difference between a Windows device running ARM and one running Intel, Windows on ARM is likely to go noweher.
• In theory, ARM is a great option for PC makers as it offers much better battery life and the CPU costs half as much.
• The nirvana was laid clearly laid out with Intel coming under pressure to cuts its prices, leading ultrabooks and tablets on ARM at affordable prices.
• This was the promise that got everyone excited (myself included) until it was made clear that Windows RT would in fact be a stripped down version of the full OS.
• Windows on ARM has fundamental limitations such as backwards compatibility and its refusal to install applications in desktop mode to name but two.
• Despite its cheaper price, users have stayed away seeming confused and preferring to spend their limited cash on smartphones and tablets instead.
• Windows 8 on Intel (usually i5) is now widely available in tablet form and in the devices that I have played with, look good and work very well.
• However, they are pricey.
• The Samsung ATIV Smart PC Pro tablet I tested works beautifully but costs $1,200.
• Furthermore when it is closed with its keyboard, it looks like a cheap plastic laptop, which is not what one expects for $1,200.
• The result of Samsung pulling the plug is likely to be all of the other PC makers following suit, leaving ARM with 0% share of the Windows market for the foreseeable future.
• I have heard vague promises that Windows 9 will offer complete harmonisation with single code supporting both chipsets but I am not holding my breath.
• When Microsoft comes under pressure to meet a deadline, it tends to cut features rather than be late, and I can see this slipping again if Microsoft wants to make an August timeline for the release of Windows 9.
• Consequently, it looks to me that it will be some considerable time before ARM can really have a go at this market and I can see the medium term forecasts for ARM having being cut.
• ARM is a high flyer for good reason but if estimates are heading south then the multiple is likely to unravel as well as the numbers.
• I still prefer ARM’s customers as the cheaper and more beneficial way to invest in the ARM story but at the moment that story itself is holding its breath.