Samsung – Glass is plastic?

Z fold 2 looks like Z Flip.

  • Samsung released a good slate of new products but potential shortcomings with the new Fold and pricing marred what was generally a good event.

Note 20 / Note 20 Ultra

  • The Note 20 Ultra goes all out with a 6.9” 120Hz screen, a huge camera bump with 50x zoom as well as a host of other new features including a very responsive new s-pen coming into line with Apple Pencil.
  • These features are needed to justify the eye-watering $1,299 starting price.
  • The Note 20 makes cuts to the screen specification, s-pen, camera, memory and also uses a plastic back rather than a glass one.
  • These make the $999 starting price look a little stretched compared to what else one can get at this price.

Galaxy Tab s7 / Galaxy Buds Live / Galaxy Watch 3

  • An unremarkable tablet was the weakest of the 3 ancillary devices launched.
  • However, the Galaxy Buds Live claim to be able to do everything that AirPods Pro can do and at a much lower price.
  • I expect Apple to take a further step with its ahead AirPods when it has its event later next month.
  • The Galaxy Watch 3 is a very interesting product albeit pretty expensive starting at $399 for the Bluetooth-only version.
  • However, this device actually looks like a wristwatch and the rotating bezel is a great user interface system.
  • However, what is most interesting about this are the bio-metrics.
  • Samsung is claiming the ability to measure blood oxygenation (good for COVID severity), blood pressure as well as performs an electrocardiogram.
  • Samsung was at pains to stress that these are not medical grade instruments and that the blood pressure monitoring required regular calibration but if they are even close to being accurate, they represent a big step forward.
  • To date, the general view (other than a few small startups) has been that blood pressure is not possible with a light sensor but to see a tier 1 manufacturer launch it implies that that the start-ups are on the right track.
  • If this can be improved to the point where it can just detect warning signs of hypertension, then it is a very useful feature as hypertension is a major killer worldwide and is often diagnosed much too late.
  • The key to this device will be how well the biometric monitors work and whether they will be of any practical use.

Z fold 2

  • Samsung’s 2nd attempt at the next generation “Nokia Communicator” was teased but not launched with more details coming on September 1st.
  • The obvious improvements involve a full screen on the outside of the device, a redesigned hinge and a smaller gap between the two sides next to the hinge when folded.
  • However, the elephant in the room remains the durability of the folding screen which has been very feeble to date.
  • Samsung is claiming that it is using flexible glass but the same claim was made for the Z Flip and the surface of the screen turned out to have the properties of plastic (very easily scratched).
  • In today’s use case for smartphones (everything and everywhere), plastic is just not durable enough because it is so easily scratched.
  • Hence, until someone figures out a way to create a flexible material which has the scratch resistance of molecularly-hardened glass (industry standard) then this segment is going nowhere.
  • I suspect that when JerryRigEverything conducts his industry-standard phone smashing tests (see here) we will see the same results as we did for the Z Flip (see here).
  • Hence, this is not going to drive an upgrade cycle for the market yet and as such, Apple is unlikely to have a go at this segment until the screens are strong enough.

Take-Home Message

  • Samsung produced a slate of nice-looking devices which should help it to regain the crown it lost to Huawei in Q2 2020.
  • The most interesting features by far are the biometric capabilities of the Galaxy Watch 3, but there is no data on whether these will be of any use or if they are just pointless gimmicks.
  • I beginning to be a bit more positive on Samsung again as its valuation remains way below its peers and it is also a way to reduce one’s exposure to the US dollar somewhat.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.