PCs – Innovation Free Zone

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Lack of innovation is another big problem for PC makers.

  • The Surface pro 3 and now the Surface 3 show that Microsoft is the only PC maker capable of any innovation.
  • Microsoft has launched a little brother to the Surface Pro 3 which differs from its big brother in three ways.
    • First. It has a smaller screen at 10 inches rather than the Pro at 12.
    • Second. It uses an Intel Atom x7 processor rather than the more powerful i3, i5 or i7 that are in the Pro.
    • Third. It is much cheaper starting at $499 going up to $599 for the 128GB, 4GB RAM version.
  • The device runs the same version of Windows as its big brother and consequently it is capable of operating as a full laptop, tablet or desktop PC depending on what accessories are used with it.
  • The device also includes a 1 year subscription of Office 365 Personal (usual price $69.99) which I suspect is yet another way of drawing users into the Microsoft Ecosystem.
  • The device promises 80% of the performance of the i3 version of the Pro 3 but at a significantly lower price.
  • By bringing this form factor meaningfully down in price, Microsoft will have removed one of the main barriers to entry but two others remain.
  • First is Microsoft’s apparent inability to market this product as a totally different way of using portable computing.
  • Instead it is sticking rigidly in its rut of trying to entice users by marketing the device as a laptop.
  • In my opinion using the Surface 3 and Pro 3 as laptops provides the worst user experience and makes nothing of the incredible innovation that has been done to cram so much power in such a small space.
  • These devices are portable desktops where the user can use device with a Bluetooth keyboard and mouse with the comfort and ergonomics of a desktop despite being out of the office.
  • It is this that makes the laptop form factor obsolete as using the device in other ways makes the user both more productive, more comfortable and healthier.
  • Unfortunately, a revolution in the user experience requires heavy investment as I think that Microsoft has invested around $100m in developing this product category.
  • Second. The PC makers have long ago been commoditised and have been forced to stop any meaningful product development as their wafer thin margins simply cannot support it.
  • Consequently they are all now dependent on the ODMs for product innovation none of whom are very good at it or seem to care that much.
  • This is why, I suspect that the electronics stores are full of ugly and clunky devices that are nothing more than laptops with detachable screens.
  • This is likely to be a significant hindrance to a laptop replacement cycle that has the potential to return the PC market to growth, albeit for a short period.
  • If users can be educated as to why the Surface use case is compelling rather than being sold yet another take on a laptop, then there is hope.
  • Until then, I suspect the PC market will lumber from one quarter to another, squandering the single biggest catalyst that could drive the shares of both Intel and Microsoft.

 

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.