Tencent Q4 21 – Long shadow of the state

Tencent cheers its own demise. Tencent reported disappointing results in which it cheered the crackdown which has caused it so many problems and also declined to buy back any shares all of which caused the shares to fall. Q4 2021 revenues / EPS were RMB144.2bn / RMB9.79 compared to estimates of RMB146.5bn / RMB3.35. The much higher than expected EPS...

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Nvidia GTC 2022 – Picks and shovels.

Nvidia builds barriers to entry. Nvidia is enhancing its claim to be the picks and shovels of the Metaverse and AI with the launch of its next-generation chips and services, that once again move it ahead of its competition and build barriers to entry. Top of the list was the announcement of a new GPU architecture called Hopper and alongside...

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Alibaba & Tencent – The backstop

Alibaba moves to support the recovery. Alibaba has increased its share buyback in a move that should help put a bottom under the recent rout, while Tencent is likely to have a difficult set of results tomorrow and there is still regulatory (albeit declining) risk hanging over the company. Alibaba is breaking out one of the last tools in a...

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GM / Cruise – Cruise control

Accounting gives GM an instant paper profit. General Motors is buying SoftBank out of its stake in Cruise in what will end as a good investment for SoftBank, but I still think that the valuations in this sector remain much too high. In 2018 SoftBank closed a two-tranche deal with Cruise where it purchased 11% for $900m and would then...

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Magic Leap – Second life pt. II

Magic Leap makes its pitch to stay in the game. Magic Leap has allowed reviewers to get an early look at its new device which is smaller, more powerful but still very far from anything that a consumer would pay for. This is why Magic Leap followed everyone else in focusing on the enterprise because productivity is far more important...

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Chinese Technology – Selective reprieve

The regulatory shadow mostly passes. China has moved to end the uncertainty that has been plaguing its technology sector with a statement that promises an end to the crackdown and recognises the VIE structure used for overseas listings for the first time. However, I think that this statement is selective and that for some sectors and companies there will be...

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Semiconductor cycle – The splurge

Spending splurge in full swing. Intel has announced that it will spend at least $33bn on leading-edge capacity in Europe in yet another sign that we are in the upward leg of one of the biggest cycles seen for many years. Intel will spend around $20bn for a leading-edge fab in Magdeburg in Germany, $13bn on expanding capacity in Ireland...

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Arm vs RISC-V – Peak appeal

The appeal of RISC-V has peaked. SiFive, the RISC-V chip designer is selling its OpenFive services business including some of its designs to Alphawave IP in what I think is a good example of perfect timing as interest in RISC-V has just peaked. RISC-V is an open-source semiconductor architecture that competes directly with Arm and allows users to build chips...

Chinese Technology – The vice

Crushed by both USA and China. The Chinese technology sector is being crushed by both the American and Chinese regulators which may leave some like Didi, with nowhere to go. This has been triggered by the latest calamity at Didi which is trying to delist from the USA and relist in Hong Kong but instead of welcoming the prodigal son...

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Rivian Q4 21 – Under the rug

Rivian makes excuses for its inexperience. Rivian reported bad Q4 21 results and went on to halve its production targets and blame it on the war in Ukraine which is a classic example of how difficult it really is to manufacture vehicles at scale even when they are in high demand. This is one of the key risks that I...

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