Autonomous Autos – Capitulation

Autonomous driving enters the capitulation stage Autonomous driving continues to have a torrid time as its devotees adjust to the reality that has been obvious for quite some time. Argo AI is the latest victim which combined with Tesla being the subject of 2 NHTSA defect investigations and plummeting valuations puts autonomous driving firmly in the capitulation phase of the...

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Amazon, Apple & Intel Q3 2022 – More gloom

Amazon Q3 2022 – Humble pie Amazon reported good results, but the traditional holiday season is going to be weaker than expected further reinforcing the view that Amazon has expanded too quickly and too far. Q3 2023 revenues / EPS were $127.1bn / $0.28 which was in line with revenue forecasts of $126.8bn but ahead of EPS forecasts of $0.21...

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Meta Platforms Q3 2022 – No fishing here

Ms Sandberg is already badly missed. The results were bad but engagement with its services has remained steady which is the one saving grace for a company where its investments look set to eat through even more of its profits in 2023 than they have in 2022. The prospect of falling earnings as the company continues to invest with seeming...

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Alphabet & Microsoft Q3 2022 – Bad omens

The pandemic bill comes due. The technology sector is feeling the pinch as consumers and businesses have less money to spend as a result of everyone paying for the pandemic through rampant inflation and higher interest rates. The result is that growth expectations are being reduced and as such, this means that multiples are going to come down. This sends...

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Meta Platforms – Knives out

Meta’s corporate governance is becoming an issue. The activists are starting to come out of the woodwork voicing their dissatisfaction with Meta, but the reality is that unless they convince Mr Zuckerberg, the only vote they have is with their feet. Altimeter Capital, which owns $325m in Meta has written an open letter (see here) to Meta bemoaning the awful...

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Snap Q3 2022 – Revaluation

Snap is heading towards value territory. Snap reported Q3 2022 results that missed expectations slightly but the resulting crash in the share price is a clear indication that the valuation of the company is still above where it needs to be (although it is getting close to something more reasonable). Q3 2022 revenues / Adj-EPS were $1.13bn / $0.08 below...

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Gone sand skiing – Back October 24th.

RFM has taken a few days off and gone sand skiing. Normal service will resume on October 24th. 

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China vs. USA – Self censorship

Semi-equipment makers remove China The US and European semiconductor capital equipment industries are self-censoring their business with China in a way that is much more draconian than I expected and if it becomes the norm, will do even more damage to the Chinese semiconductor industry than anyone has anticipated. US companies such as Applied Materials, KLA corp and LAM Research...

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Smart Home – A Matter of detail.

Matter only goes so far. The new Matter standard has the potential to end the fragmentation and incompatibility of the smart home but even with all of the big digital ecosystems supporting it, there are limitations and scope for substantial complexity to damage the user experience. Matter is an application layer protocol which was created to address the issue of...

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Meta – Misplaced message

Missed the connection. Meta headlined its Connect 2022 event with its new pro-headset but its real message was completely lost meaning that what Meta is really doing in the Metaverse will remain a mystery to the market for at least another year. Most commentators looked at what Meta has today and used this to predict where the company is going,...

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