Crypto – Deep Freeze.

Spring will come eventually. The bankruptcy of BlockFi adds another layer to the wreckage deepening the crypto winter, but there are real use cases for the blockchain technology that mean that at some point it is almost certain to rise again and take its proper place in the economy. For those with a long-term view and a contrarian nature, I...

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Huawei & ZTE – No substance.

The latest ban is all noise and no substance. The USA has banned the sale of all electronics from Huawei and ZTE into the USA on the grounds of national security in what is largely a symbolic move but may pave the way for further restrictions in the future. The FTC release an order on Friday which also banned surveillance...

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Activision / Microsoft – Buyer’s remorse.

FTC may end up doing Microsoft a favour. If Microsoft had delayed its bid for Activision, it probably would have been able to get it for half of the price it has committed to pay, meaning that an FTC blocking lawsuit may well do Satya & Co. a big favour. However, at the same time, there are some simple remedies...

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Automotive services – Backward business

Users are not going to subscribe to hardware. RFM has long predicted that automotive digital services are the solution to the problem of lower vehicle sales, but Mercedes and BMW continue to demonstrate that they don’t really understand what is happening in their industry. RFM Research predicts that as a result of the electrification of the automobile and autonomous driving,...

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Zoom – Circle of life

Consumer is in trouble. Zoom reported results that show that the pandemic boom is well and truly over and while the valuation has returned to levels that one could consider sensible, the risk of commoditisation and competition is now very real. This means that even though the shares have done a full circle back to where I first noticed them...

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Faraday Future – Dilution effect

Best case valuation is almost zero. The gap between Faraday Future’s spin in its press releases and the reality of its SEC filings has never been larger, but even in the best-case scenario, there is likely to be so much equity dilution that the shares in issue now are worth almost nothing. Faraday Future reported its Q3 2022 results which...

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Artificial Intelligence – Galactic fail.

Hubris once again found wanting. The failure of Meta’s scientific language model to survive for more than three days online is just another sign that when it comes to AI, the machines are far too stupid to do anything that they have not been explicitly shown before. Galactica is a language model created by Meta that is designed to help...

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Alibaba FQ2 23 – Recovery in waiting

The turn depends on Covid Zero policy. Alibaba reported reasonable results where e-commerce remained flattish but an increase of share buybacks to $40bn to the end of 2025 provided much-needed support for those patiently waiting for the recovery. FQ2 23 revenues were RMB207.2bn some RMB3.4bn (1.7%) below consensus of RMB210.6bn as local e-commerce stagnated and newer businesses like food delivery...

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Nvidia, Cisco & Micron – Tale of two cities

Two tech segments worlds apart. Nvidia and Cisco managed to reassure the market with reasonable results pointing to steady enterprise spending but Micron, Amazon, and Meta Platforms all point to inflation-linked softness in consumer expenditure. Nvidia reported reasonable results where once again, excellent execution in the enterprise helped offset the triple whammy (consumer, crypto & inventory) that has hit the...

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Corporate Governance – Caveat emptor pt. III

Another investor without a leg to stand on. Another investor has come out of the woodwork to criticise Alphabet’s expenses and its hiring practices but once again, this investor has no grounds whatsoever for complaints in my opinion. This time the company is Alphabet and the investor is TCI which holds $6bn of Alphabet shares and is criticising the high...

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