Apple – Returning Vision

A good effort but too early. Some users are starting to return the Apple Vision Pro in a sign that while Apple has clearly demonstrated how The Metaverse should be implemented, it has failed to solve the basic VR problems that everyone else continues to labour with. A small, but not insignificant proportion of Apple Vision Pro users are choosing...

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Nvidia – Chat with RTX

Nvidia needs to go further. Nvidia has released an LLM-based chatbot for Nvidia graphics cards but by not using its own foundation model, it is still leaving itself open to pressure as the AI Ecosystem develops and the control point moves up through the technology stack. The new chatbot is called Chat with RTX and is only available on PCs...

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OpenAI – Numbers game

OpenAI’s numbers look like they have been cherry-picked. OpenAI’s growth looks explosive at first glance but digging into some of the details and making deductions along the way results in a very different picture. Analysis of the scraps that OpenAI has allowed to fall into the public domain reveals a good business case but also a host of questions. First...

Artificial Intelligence – Expected unreality

Mr Altman’s agenda continues to defy gravity and reality. Sam Altman and Open AI appear to be intending to take over both the entire technology industry and everyone’s personal devices with schemes that sound as outlandish as those attached to the Internet in 2000 and autonomous driving in 2017. Sam Altman is currently on a tour in the Middle East...

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Google Gemini – More of same.

It will soon be much cheaper. Google has launched a new version of its generative AI and followed everyone else down the $20 per user per month business model, but as it appears to be pretty similar to the other models available, I expect that price erosion will set in pretty quickly. Google has made several changes involving its AI...

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Arm FQ3 24 – AI Pixie Dust

Arm silences the critics of last quarter Arm topped off a good set of earnings that silenced its critics and added a sprinkle of AI pixie dust that gave the market confidence that the AI story is real driving the shares up 19% in after-hours trading. FQ3 revenues / Adj-EPS were $824m / $0.29 ahead of estimates of $762m /...

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USA vs. China – Road to Nowhere

Multi-patterning is an economic dead end. Huawei and SMIC appear to be in a position to mass manufacture leading-edge semiconductors but flooding the market with cheap semiconductors will require them to manufacture chips economically, which looks impossible given the techniques that they are using. The Financial Times (see here) has an exclusive with multiple sources claiming that SMIC is setting...

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AI Ecosystem – The race begins

Foundation model is to AI what OS is to smartphone. While everyone is going to be focused on inference in 2024, the real action is going to be in the ecosystem where new players and old will slug it out to ensure that users and developers use their models as opposed to anyone else’s. The players are all working to...

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Results deluge– Meta, Apple & Amazon.

Meta pushes the open-source button. Excellent results, more fat trimming, a dividend, and a share buyback hid higher losses from the Metaverse and more capex allowing a fire to be lit under the shares. Q4 2023 revenues / EPS were $40.1bn / $5.33 where profits beat by more than revenues against consensus of $39.1bn / $4.82. The key to the...

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Qualcomm FQ1 24 – On the up

Apple remains toothless. Good results combined with further confirmation that Apple is in no position to restart its patent fight with Qualcomm, result in a company with good short and long-term prospects trading at a reasonable price. FQ1 24 revenues / Adj-EPS were $9.9bn / $2.75 ahead of estimates at $9.5bn / $2.37 which combined with a steady outlook confirms...

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