Scaling laws appear to be dying. There are more signs that the “scaling laws” that have underpinned the AI explosion (and all of the hype attached to super-intelligent machines) are coming to an end meaning that the real potential of LLMs is now visible and is falling way short of the craziest of forecasts. It is important to note that...
China and semiconductors are unlikely to change much. A change of administration is likely to mean that there is more noise and bluster but no real change when it comes to policy towards either China or the subsidisation of the semiconductor industry overall. Semiconductors Despite only a few days having passed, the outgoing administration is now hurrying to complete its...
Qualcomm FQ4 24 – Top Gear. Qualcomm reported good results that beat expectations as a result of a strong performance in automotive, providing the first piece of hard evidence that the diversification strategy is beginning to bear fruit. FQ4 24 revenues / Adj-EPS were $10.2bn / $2.69 nicely ahead of expectations of $9.91bn / $2.56 and there was more good...
Google on the back foot. Open AI has launched a competitor to Google which performs reasonably well in a strong indication that the barriers to entry in the search business are continuing to fall, putting increasing pressure on Google to convince users why they should still use it. SearchGPT is a new service from Open AI that greatly improves its...
There is no fundamental support here. Another set of good results drove Palantir shares to new highs, but this was not the sort of blow-out that Nvidia has been reporting and with the shares 3x as expensive and rampant dilution, one is not getting much for one’s money. Q3 24 revenues / GAAP EPS were $726m (up 30% YoY) /...
Most upside for MediaTek Samsung is having trouble with more than just high bandwidth memory (HBM) as it appears that it is considering not using its Exynos processor in some of its 2025 smartphones which will benefit Qualcomm and potentially MediaTek. It is no secret that Samsung has struggled with its in-house applications processor for some time and with Qualcomm...
Apple FQ4 24 – Intelligence upgrades. Apple reported good results as the promise of Apple Intelligence has generated a mini-upgrade cycle, but it was not nearly enough to return the company to the kind of growth that its valuation demands. FQ4 revenues / Adj-EPS were $94.9bn (+6% YoY) / $1.64 slightly ahead of consensus at $94.4bn / $1.60. iPhone revenues...
Meta Platforms Q3 24 – Boondoggle? Meta reported good results but the continued heavy investments into AI and The Metaverse from which returns are hard to quantify, made the market worry whether Mr Zuckerberg is going back to his old profligate ways. Q3 24 revenue / EPS was $40.6bn / $6.03 which was broadly in line with revenue forecasts of...
Meta pushes harder for independence. Meta’s difficult experience with Android and iOS has left it so determined to be self-reliant that in addition to AI, it is now having a go at creating a search engine in another sign that the industry increasingly thinks that Google no longer has an edge in a must-have service. Meta appears to be building...
Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.
Amazon & AI – A Question of Time
No one is going to dislodge Nvidia yet. Amazon is readying the next version of its in-house AI training and inference chips but until CUDA is no longer the control point of AI training and Amazon iterates much faster, it is going nowhere (except in-house and with Anthropic). Trainium is Amazon’s in house data centre chip that is designed to...