Microsoft – Field of dreams.

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If all you do is build it, they won’t come.

  • Nadella’s recent memo says all the right things but reveals the vast amount of work that is needed to make this dream a reality.
  • All through the 3,000 word memo it is clear that Microsoft intends to make the most of the assets it has and become a full ecosystem company.
  • With its combination of corporate and consumer assets, Microsoft is unique in being able to address both the Digital Life Pie and the Digital Work Pie.
  • With its mixture of software and services, it has an offering for almost everything that a user does in his personal and professional life but the key will be bringing it together.
  • It is here where the hardware assets of Surface, handsets and Xbox come in.
  • The idea is to use these as a showcase for how both Digital Work and Digital Life can work seamlessly on cool hardware.
  • The boundaries are becoming blurred with many users using devices in both a professional and a personal capacity.
  • At the end of the day Microsoft wants a user to feel that almost every digital need that he has can be taken care of in a seamless, easy-to-use and incredibly fun way.
  • If this can be achieved, then Microsoft will have a unique ecosystem giving it both appeal and pricing power.
  • This is the biggest driver for long-term revenue and profit growth.
  • If Microsoft is to decouple from the PC and enterprise spending cycles, it is here that it will be achieved.
  • However this is where the trouble starts.
  • In order to achieve this, every asset that Microsoft has must be fully integrated with everything else.
  • Every service must be fully aware of the other services that the user is signed up for and be able cater to that.
  • The current state of Microsoft’s portfolio is very far adrift of this requirement and the required integration is going to be a herculean effort of messy plumbing.
  • Examples of the problems are:
    • There is a personal and professional version of OneDrive but the two have nothing to do with each other.
    • Integration between Lync (Professional VoIP) and Skype (Personal VoIP) is almost non-existent.
    • The databases for many of the Personal Digital Life services remain separate from each other and do not share user information.
  • Furthermore Microsoft must completely change the way markets its offering and deal with the fact that users have no real idea of what the Microsoft ecosystem can for them.
  • The market is likely to remain fixated on a potential headcount reduction at Nokia, share buybacks and the PC market but the real future of this company will be decided by its ability to execute this vision.
  • Microsoft has the right vision and my confidence that the culture can be changed continues to improve.
  • Hence, I am increasingly optimistic that Microsoft can achieve this vision and as a result increasingly place Microsoft in my top 3 companies to look at when considering the ecosystem.
  • These are Google, Yahoo! and Microsoft.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.

Blog Comments

Sam Jebeli-Javan

Your constant absence of Apple is strange. They have the hardware, software, and some aspects of social and are doing integration better than the three you mention overall. I am still fascinated why they don’t make your list.

Hi Sam
Totally valid question.
The answer is very simple. I think that iOS will be a very successful ecosystem but from a stock perspective I would not be a buyer of Apple shares. I think that there are long term issues around its weak position in Digital Life that will pressure margins if not quickly addressed. Hence when I look at the shares i think that they are fairly priced. Hence I have no strong view one way or the other. This is why it seems to be being overlooked when it comes to successful ecosystems. The reality is that this is very far from the case.

Thanks. Now it makes sense to me. I think an up to date article on apple’s weak areas would be great coming from you. When do you think makes the most sense publish it?

This happens on a regular basis but it is part of the paid research product and not posted here. If you would like to subscribe please let me know…