Google – Turn of the screw.

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Google trying everything except what it really needs.

• Google is doing everything it can to put at an end its horrible Android problems, but I still think that at the end of the day it will find that only by taking Android fully proprietary will it be able to fix its woes.
• Google is clamping down yet again on how handset makers implement its software on their devices by only allowing Google services to run on devices where the OS software has been certified.
• In order to pre-load Google Apps (Gapps) device makers have to follow Google’s Compatibility Definition Document (CDD) that will then enable the device to pass the Compatibility Test Suite (CTS).
• Passing the CTS is required to be able to install Google Play which is a pre-requisite to selling an Android device in most parts of the world.
• This also comes with the requirement to also install Google Services front and centre on the device and set them by default.
• Historically, this has been reasonably easy to get around as users have been able to download and run Gapps on any version of Android as the restrictions have only applied to pre-installation.
• Google, has now taken this one step further as Gapps will no longer run on devices where the Android OS has not been certified.
• It is still reasonably straight forward to get certification so modders like xdadevelopers will still be able to function, but they will have to register their mods with Google and they will need to pass the CTS.
• This help bring greater consistency to Android devices but I suspect that it will once again fall far short of that which is needed to bring the Android user experience into line with iOS.
• I have long argued that Google could make much more money from Android if the user experience could be made more consistent, easy and fun to use.
• It is these characteristics that RFM research has long found to be a large part of iOS’s ability to generate greater advertising revenues.
• This is due to the device being used more and the user having more loyalty to it.
• Despite Google’s efforts, Android remains a fragmented, inconsistent experience where the user base takes on average 5 years to upgrade to a new version of the software.
• Hence, this latest idea may reduce the fragmentation somewhat and slightly increase the speed with which Android devices can be upgraded, but it is likely to fall far short of fixing the problem.
• Hence, I continue to believe that Google must take full control of the software along the lines of how Apple does to have any chance to catch up with the usability and quality of iOS.
• In the meantime, Google is forgoing a revenue opportunity which I think it can ill afford to do given its high valuation and the slowing of internet revenue growth globally.
• I continue to be pretty ambivalent to Alphabet’s stock but would be more interested should Google finally decide to meet this problem head on.