Google – Pointless progress

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Lollipop 5.1 is pointless while it sits on the shelf.

• Google unveiled an update to its Android 5.0 software that aims to bring its functionality more into line with that which is offered on iOS and Microsoft.
• The update features Device Protection that works like Apple’s Activation Lock which renders the device inoperable if stolen, multiple SIM support as well as high definition voice.
• The update is currently being rolled out for Nexus devices on some US operators but the rest of the mobile world seems not to have noticed.
• This underlines the single biggest problem that Google faces.
• Google has virtually no control over how and when its software is distributed and installed on its devices.
• This means that if operators and handset vendors do not want to update their devices, there is very little that Google can do about it.
• Some handset vendors specifically do not want to update their existing devices because they fear that it will dis-incentivise users from buying another handset.
• This is a major reason why 96.7% of all Android devices remain on older versions of the code meaning that almost all Android users are not benefitting from Google’s latest innovations.
• RFM research indicates that Google’s ecosystem enjoys less usage and lower loyalty than iOS partly due to usability issues and software fragmentation.
• In order to fix this Google needs to take control of the user experience by exerting greater control over Android itself but while it is incapable of distributing the updates, they are next to useless.
• To make matters worse, it gives competitors time to copy Google’s innovations and get them into the market long before Google can do so itself.
• I have long believed that the only way in which Google can fix this is by taking complete control of both the software code as well as its distribution.
• This spells the end of open source within the Android camp and I suspect that in a few years it will simply be a series of proprietary ecosystems sitting on top of a tiny Android / Linux kernel.
• This will make life much harder for developers as the differences between the different ecosystems on Android will become much greater, making supporting them more difficult.
• However, all Google really cares about is collecting traffic on its servers and keeping users in its ecosystem.
• This approach is the only way in which this is likely to be achieved and I fully expect Google to close Android down in the medium term.
• This is bad news for the Android alternates like Cyanogen, Xiaomi and anyone else building ecosystems on Android as they will have to do far more coding in the future for the same amount of money.
• Google remains the only company in the Android camp that I would consider when looking at the digital mobile ecosystem.