Google – Law of small numbers.

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Google must take control of software distribution.

• The headlines are touting 80% growth in share for Android 5.0 (Lollipop) but that is only because it is coming from a tiny base.
• The reality is that Android 5.0 (Lollipop) is still used on less than 10% of Google Android devices that are in the world today.
• If all Android devices are included, then RFM estimates that the number is more like 4% as Google compliant Android makes up only 43% of the entire base of Android devices in the world.
• In contrast iOS8 made it onto over 30% of devices within 2 days and over 70% of devices within 3 months.
• Lollipop was launched with great fanfare almost a year ago at Google i/o 2014 and it represents a great improvement over KitKat.
• However, as only 4% of all Android devices are using it after one year, in reality it has no impact on the overall user experience and makes Google a laughingstock.
• This problem exists because Android distribution is controlled by the handset makers and operators who have declined to upgrade their devices.
• Google’s inability to roll out its software onto its devices is now the biggest problem that Google has.
• Fragmentation, malware and so on can be dealt with but getting its software onto the devices that run its services is the most basic and fundamental requirement to have a thriving ecosystem.
• Without it, there is no point in upgrading the user experience and the ecosystem because the users will never experience it.
• The worst part of it is that the software has been widely available and documented for a year which has allowed its competitors to copy its innovations and get them to market while Google’s software sits on the shelf.
• While this state persists Google’s Digital Life services, upon which $8bn of its advertising revenue depends, will become less attractive and less engaging because almost all users will be running older code.
• This gives Apple plenty of space to distance itself from Google in terms of the quality of the experience and Microsoft the opportunity to break in.
• This is why Google’s priority must be to take control of software distribution.
• The problem here is warranty liability as the distributor of the software has to be responsible should the distributed software brick the device.
• Currently, it’s the handset makers and the mobile operators that take this liability but I think Google will have to take it over.
• This means extra risk for Google but it will provide a further incentive to ensure that the software is much more consistent and of very high quality before distribution.
• For me, this is the single most important issue that Google needs to address at its developer conference (Google i/o) which will be held on 28^th and 29^th of May in San Francisco.
• Without addressing this issue, most of the conference will be irrelevant as great innovations that sit on the shelf rather in the hands of users benefit only competitors.
• Lollipop is a great upgrade for Android and improves the user experience significantly, but while it sits on the shelf, only a sucker will think that it makes a difference to the Google ecosystem.
• Microsoft remains my top choice for the ecosystem but there is still some upside in Google even if it fails to fix this thorny issue.