Google and Toyota – Dominoes.

Toyota could trigger an industry cave-in to Google. 

• It looks like Toyota (see here) is about to allow Android Auto access to the infotainment units in its vehicles in a sign that Google is slowly winning a grip on the auto industry and that its own SDL initiative is failing.
• Android Auto is a piece of software that resides in both Android handsets and in the infotainment unit that allows apps that are running on the phone to be projected onto the infotainment unit’s screen.
• The software has no access to the systems or data of the vehicle, but it is an alternative user experience to that of the vehicle maker and is rightly viewed with fear and suspicion.
• If users become hooked on using Android Auto in the vehicle, it won’t be long before they demand a full Android implementation in the infotainment unit such that they can control the whole vehicle using the same user experience.
• Google already has a solution for that called Android Automotive that a number of vehicle makers (see here) have agreed to use in some or all of their cars.
• This, of course, is exactly what Google wants.
• Google’s mission in life is to gather all the data from the internet, characterise it and sell targeted advertising on the basis of what it learns.
• With Android Automotive, it is likely to have full access to that data taking away the single most important point of differentiation that the vehicle makers have in a world of electric vehicles.
• This is how Google will repeat exactly what it has done in smartphones and reduce the vehicle makers to nothing more than handsets on wheels.
• This is why Toyota has resisted the implementation of Android Auto in its vehicles as it rightly sees this as a slippery slope.
• Apple Car Play is much less threatening because, with the sale of the device, Apple has already been paid for its ecosystem and has little incentive to get access to the vehicle’s data.
• Toyota, Ford and a number of other vehicle makers have their own version of Android Auto called SDL.
• SDL is very similar to Android Auto and Car Play and, as such, requires developers to add support for it to their apps.
• This is where the problems have arisen as Android and iOS already have millions of developers making it much more likely that apps will be enabled for Android Auto and Car Play than SDL.
• This is particularly the case as RFM research indicates that there are far more cars enabled for Android Auto and Car Play than there are for SDL making it a less attractive proposition for developers.
• Toyota’s decision (if announced) is a big moment for the industry as it will signal the surrender of one of the industry’s fiercest hold-outs and the possibility that many others follow its wake.
• It is also likely to signal the end of SDL as developers looking to get into Toyota’s cars will have an increased incentive to develop their apps with Android Auto rather than SDL.
• This, combined with the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance’s deal to support full Android in the vehicle (presumably allowing Google access to their data) is another sign that Google’s patience is paying off.
• RFM research indicates that Google has been a little bit more willing to negotiate with car makers over the last year or two, but the end result is likely to be that car makers will end up with just a small piece of something that is currently 100% theirs.
• The result is that they become also-rans in their own industry.
• It is their inability and unwillingness to change, work together and see the bigger picture that is largely responsible for the current trajectory that will see them become merely handsets on wheels.