Fitbit – Day of the Dodo

Reply to this post

Pedometer going the way of the digital camera.

• A recent study by the University of Pennsylvania under scientific conditions has shown that smartphones are just as accurate at tracking steps as dedicated pedometer devices.
• 14 participants each conducted 4 walking exercises carrying two smartphones and 6 pedometers comprising 3 Fitbits, 1 Digi-Walker, 1 Jawbone and 1 Nike Fuelband.
• This gave a total sample size of 56 which in the investigators’ opinion (with which I agree) was enough to establish statistical significance.
• While the Fitbit devices were significantly more accurate than the other pedometers or the smartphones, it was clear from the study that for all practical purposes, the smartphones were accurate enough.
• This was evident in the standard deviations of the samples which for the Fitbit trackers were very small indeed compared to those for the other pedometers or smartphones.
• This raises the question as to why a user would bother purchasing a pedometer at all as the smartphone is perfectly capable of tracking his activates.
• I believe that in future users won’t bother and that the pedometer is likely to suffer exactly the same fate as the digital camera.
• This is further evidence of how the smartphone continues to evolve as an all-purpose device as more and more functionality is packed into it.
• This creates a huge dilemma for Fitbit in particular, as this study pretty conclusively debunks the view that smartphones are not accurate enough.
• Consequently, it is of no surprise to see it trying to expand the functionality of its devices beyond mere step tracking.
• I suspect that the future for these sorts of devices is going to be found in measuring the environment in ways that a device that sits in your pocket is unsuited to.
• This could be things like heart rate, blood pressure, blood sugar and so on and so forth.
• Outside of this, wearables remain a problem looking for a solution and taking Fitbit into the smartwatch category does nothing to differentiate it and is likely to result in poor sales and large losses.
• However, if the Fitbit Surge and Charge HR can accurately track heart rate they might have a chance, but many including Apple and Microsoft are also now making this claim.
• Furthermore, these two companies have developed their own component for continuous heart rate tracking as this has been a very difficult problem to reliably crack.
• I doubt that Fitbit has the resources to develop its own sensor and therefore I suspect that it has had to buy one and I am far from convinced that there is a decent one available on the merchant market.
• Nike has already seen the writing on the wall and given up, ceding its product to Apple and it looks that Fitbit may be forced into the same situation as pedometers in phones increase their penetration.
• 2015E is going to see plenty of noise about wearables but I very much doubt that it will see something incredible emerge that moves wearables into the mainstream of consumer electronics.