CES 2020 – Last word

Reality was the real theme at CES 2020

Back to reality

• The week started with its usual bunch of glitzy press conferences from the big players but their lack of substance meant that the real story was to be found elsewhere.
• I haven’t seen the official attendance numbers, but it felt like footfall was down in the big halls which was exacerbated by Intel and Qualcomm’s decision to ditch the halls in favour of meeting rooms as well as Nvidia’s no show.
• However, over at the Sands and especially in Eureka Park (where the really small companies are to be found), it was as busy as ever.
• Here the theme was very much about showing the latest product which is now good enough to begin selling and generating revenues.
• The mantra around general AI everywhere has gone and the focus from these companies was on using AI in their own very specific and focused use case.
• In the absence of a revolution in AI, this is exactly what RFM research has predicted (see here) and it is in these specific use cases where success is going to found in the short to medium-term.
• This combined with a broadening of the use of existing technology to improve and create new products for the pet care, sleep, convalescence & sex industry is where the real advances where to be found.
• This combined with continued consolidation in the overly hyped sectors like autonomous driving & AR is likely to be how 2020 unfolds.

Social robotics

• One of the newer sectors to emerge in more detail at CES 2020 was the area of social robotics.
• This is all about robots that can help out at home or provide companionship for lonely humans.
• Samsung’s tennis ball robot (Ballie), Softbank’s Pepper and many others are good examples of this segment.
• While this amounts to an interesting theme, I think social robotics is a non-starter for the foreseeable future.
• This is because neither the physical robotics nor the brains of the devices are close to being capable of producing a good user experience.
• Almost all robots out there today have wheels because it is so difficult to teach them to walk on legs.
• Consequently, unless the house is completely flat with no steps or bumps, the robot will have difficulty covering the whole house.
• Furthermore, the data set of home help or companionship is neither stable nor is it finite.
• This means that the AI that is currently being used across the industry will not be able to provide a decent user experience.
• Hence, I think that this segment will continue to do well on hype but very short on reality.
• I am not even close to considering investing in this segment yet