BlackBerry – Fool’s errand

Reply to this post

Android will probably make things worse.

• If the leaks are right, BlackBerry could shortly launch a new device that is based on Android rather than BB10.
• The device is thought to have a 5.4” display, 3GB RAM, quad core Snapdragon 808 processor and an 18MP rear facing camera.
• It will also have a slide out QWERTY keyboard not dissimilar to the BlackBerry Torch.
• These are the high-end specs of Android devices today but I suspect that by the time this device launched they may be a little behind the curve.
• To me, BlackBerry using Android makes no sense at all as:
  • First. BlackBerry is supposed to be focusing on its enterprise customers where security and device management are paramount.
  • Android is far less secure and less easy to manage than BB10, meaning that a BlackBerry enterprise customer is very unlikely to choose it.
  • Second. Going to Android strongly indicates that BlackBerry is intending to address the consumer giving the impression of a strategy that flip-flops back and forth.
  • Third. BlackBerry will not have access to the Google Play store unless it becomes a full Google Mobile Services (GMS) Partner.
  • This will render the device to a commodity, meaning that 2-4% EBIT margins are the best it can hope for unless it obtains huge scale.
  • Huge scale is extremely unlikely even in a blue sky scenario, and I would expect BlackBerry to lose meaningful sums if it should decide to offer a GMS device.
• BlackBerry could choose to go with the Amazon App. Store which RFM calculates that it delivers 74% equivalency when compared to Apple App. Store or Google Play.
• This would give it the freedom to do its own thing in terms of ecosystem but BlackBerry has virtually nothing to add in this space.
• I suspect that BlackBerry thinks that having access to third party apps will solve all of its problems but the example of Amazon shows that this is not the case.
• Amazon has a pretty good app store but its lack of Digital Life services and the fact that the user has to pay $99 per year to get access to the ecosystem destroys what little appeal it has.
• If BlackBerry is going down road it will have re-embark on creating a user experience and services that will delight users which history has shown it is incapable of doing.
• Hence, launching an Android device will do nothing except increase BlackBerry’s losses in handsets further diminishing what little value there is left in the company.
• I fear that BlackBerry still has far to fall and would prefer almost any other player over this one.