Apple – The Jack

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Removing the headphone jack could hurt replacement sales.

• I am pretty certain that Apple is considering whether or not to remove the headphone jack but actually taking this drastic step is far more dangerous than one would think.
• The headphone jack is a 3.5mm wide hole on every smartphone and tablet in the world and unlike every other component in these devices, its size has not changed in over 20 years.
• The result is that it is now a limiting factor in the thickness of a mobile device and removing it would allow devices to become even thinner.
• However, this connector has been an industry standard for over 20 years and removing it runs the risk of annoying a great number of Apple users.
• I think that making the iPhone thinner is not a priority for Apple as:
  • First. I believe that the iPhone is already thin enough and making it thinner is unlikely to generate the kind of returns that would justify the investment to make it so.
  • Second. A thinner device would also have less structural rigidity meaning that it would be even more susceptible to being bent than its predecessors.
• There would of course be adaptors but users tend to find these to be very inconvenient and I think they would hamper the ease and fun of use that is so important to iPhone.
• The real danger in removing the headphone jack is that it could have a negative impact on the upgrade cycle where users are inclined to keep their older Apple devices for longer because of a feature that they love and investments they have made in accessories.
• In order to force this change onto users, it would need to be accompanied by an upgrade to the device so compelling that users would be less concerned about the loss of the headphone jack in order to get access to this new must-have feature.
• I think that this opportunity occurred with the launch of the iPhone 6 in 2014 where Apple addressed the desire of almost every iPhone user for a larger screen device.
• I very much doubt that the iPhone 7 or 7s will have such a compelling feature and consequently I think that Apple’s best opportunity of getting rid of the jack has passed.
• Therefore because I think that as a thinner iPhone does not offer much value and because it risks enraging a lot of customers, it makes no sense to get rid of it.
• Hence I think the 3.5mm headphone jack, whose initial design is over 100 years old, is here to stay a little while longer.