Apple – Final hurdle

Key signal for a wearable launch still missing.

• The market has worked itself into a fever pitch with regards to the imminent launch of the iWatch.
• The latest device is supposed to have a curved rectangular screen, wireless charging and is possibly will get some of its power from solar cells.
• Apple has compounded speculation by hiring a senior sales executive from TAG Heuer presumably to run the launch and subsequent sales of the device.
• To me, this hire is an indication that Apple is taking the potential of this segment seriously and understands the brand implications of wristwatches, but it is not a sign of an imminent launch of a device.
• A rectangular screen immediately brings to mind an ugly box on the wrist but I suspect what Apple has in mind is a bracelet device like Nike’s now-defunct Fuel band.
• This would be an enhancement of Samsung’s Gear Fit form factor which looks much better in the flesh than it does on paper.
• This latest form factor is the latest in a long list of rumoured wearable devices none of which have ever been launched.
• I suspect that these details are coming from companies that have been engaged to manufacture experimental prototypes.
• This arrangement will entail the manufacture of a sample batch of devices and nothing more.
• If Apple decides that the device is ready for the market, then the device will put into mass production.
• Mass production is the only reliable indicator that a device is going to launch but so far nothing has made it this far.
• While it is easy to design a cool form factor, it is much more difficult to come up with a compelling use case that will drive millions of users to buy the device.
• This is the main reason why I think that Apple has held off from launching a wearable to date.
• Its market position and status demand something cool and innovative with a great use case.
• Anything less will be damaging for the brand and could even impact demand for iPhone and iPads.
• This is why I believe that Apple is experimenting with prototypes rather than testing with products and why it will hold off from launch until it is certain that it has got it right.
• Hence, until I hear that a device has gone into mass production, I will remain of the opinion that Apple’s will continue to tinker with prototypes.
• For an autumn launch, the device needs to begin mass production sometime during this month (July) and of this is there is still no sign.
• Therefore I continue to think that the next product event will see the launch of the larger screen iPhone 6, an update to the iPhone 5c and a new iPad.