Apple Event – Incremental innovation

Apple takes no risks with its launches.

  • The event is back to its usual time but while the production quality of the event was better than ever, the products themselves only inched forward which I think will not have users rushing out to replace the devices they purchased last year or even the year before.
  • This, of course, is caveated by mobile operators who are very keen to see users on their new 5G networks and who may very well continue to incentivise upgrades.
  • Almost all of the incremental improvements involved were related to screens and cameras but also this year’s processors which push the internals forward somewhat.
    • iPhone 13: Each iPhone 12 model was updated to four iPhone 13 variants where the cameras got a little bit better and the screens became brighter with a smaller notch and faster refresh rate.
    • The batteries are generally a little bit bigger to support the higher refresh rate and the improved performance.
    • Hence, the devices are a little bit thicker than last year to accommodate the larger battery and the camera bump is also somewhat more pronounced.
    • Apple also inched forward its photographic software offering a new cinematic mode with dynamic depth of field and macro photography.
    • Prices remain unchanged which will keep Apple exactly where it is in the market.
    • Apple Watch: Series 7 has 20% more screen area than Series 6 achieved by making the bezels smaller.
    • The device is also more ergonomic with wider curves that also extend to the edge of the screen.
    • However, the real features that I have been hoping for which are blood pressure and blood glucose monitoring are still missing.
    • This is no fault of Apple’s as getting estimates of these two key characteristics is fiendishly difficult to get right when one only uses green light to measure them.
    • iPad: probably represented the most significant update with the base model greatly updated while remaining at the same relatively low (in Apple terms) price of $329.
    • I think that this makes the entry iPad a strong contender for consideration against even cheaper rivals given its higher specification and the higher quality iOS ecosystem that comes with it.
  • The net result is that these announcements were enough to keep Apple in its current position.
  • No risks were taken but the updates that were made were enough to keep Apple as the one to beat in flagship smartphones.
  • This is exactly the mindset that will sink the company when the tectonic shift away from the smartphone comes.
  • Apple will be unwilling to risk its huge legacy business to focus on something else and, as such, the company is at risk of repeating Nokia’s experience.
  • It will take a great leader to avoid this fate and I think that Tim Cook’s has largely been a caretaker since the retirement of Steve Jobs.
  • Fortunately, I think this time is still far off meaning that Apple can continue to chug along, incrementally updating its products and treading water.
  • This is not the stuff that Apple’s valuation is demanding which is why I continue not to favour it despite its apparent safety and stability.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.