Apple – Conspicuous absence.

No wearables expected next month.

• The first days of September are going to be littered with new device launches.
• The IFA trade fair has become a great place for stealing Apple’s thunder as it occurs in early September, right before Apple’s traditional launch window.
• Two new iPhones, the Galaxy Note 4, the Sony Experia Z3 and a new Windows Phone have all been widely leaked.
• Furthermore, it now appears that the new iPad has just gone into mass production implying a launch date in early October.
• It was only just over a month ago (see here) when the speculation regarding the launch of an iWatch was at fever pitch.
• Prototypes were popping up all over the place and Apple was frantically recruiting from the Swiss watch industry (see here).
• Since that time there has been no mention whatsoever of an iWatch going into mass production and no leaked photos from clumsy beta testers.
• This tells me what I suspected all along, and that is that this product remains the same as all the others: a prototype.
• A wrist mounted device is probably a direction in which Apple needs to go at some stage but until it figures out a real use for this device it will continue to tinker.
• This means that prototypes will continue to be ordered and the cycle of speculation and disappointment will continue.
• For now wearables remain a solution looking for a problem. This problem has yet to be solved despite huge R&D expense by all concerned.
• I continue to believe that the key signal in the launch of any device remains chatter from Asia regarding a device going into mass production.
• Hence I suspect that the launch program for next month remains:
  • September 3^rd – Sony Experia Z3 and Z3 Compact
  • September 3^rd – Samsung Galaxy Note 4
  • September 4^th – Microsoft Lumia 730 and 830.
  • September 9^th – iPhone 6 (possibly in two sizes).
  • October – New iPad Air.
• Q4 is going to be a crucial quarter as Apple will have finally put to bed the screen size issue that has been a major draw for Android users to date.
• How many now take the plunge and switch will be critical but I suspect that price will continue to be a significant limiting factor.