Android vs. iOS – iOS still on top

Recent surveys indicate that Apple still leads iOS in all aspects except volume.

• Recent work by Flurry shows that while Android is now the runaway volume leader in the mobile ecosystem race, it still lags when it comes to usage.
• Market leadership has swapped back and forth over the course of 2012 but it is now firmly in Android’s hands and shows no signs of changing again any time soon.
• When one adds smartphones (where Android is the runaway leader) and tablets where iOS utterly dominates one finds that Android now has 53% market share and rising.
• Other smartphone OSs are, for the moment, remain a rounding error.
• However, when one looks into app. usage another story emerges.
• Total usage (sum of all app usage on all devices) shows that Android, which almost reached iOS levels a year ago, is now at 80% of iOS and falling.
• This data fits with less recent data that shows that Android devices at the same price point are generate less traffic than iOS devices although this gap has been closing.
• I see a number of reasons for this:
  • Demographics. Android devices are purchased by much less affluent users. Hence they have less money to spend on apps and therefore would in all likelihood spend less time using them.
  • Despite this, I am surprised to see Android’s share declining as it is gaining in terms of users and therefore I would have expected total usage should be rising more quickly than it is.
  • What this is pointing to is that new users are very low end and use apps so infrequently, that they are causing total usage to grow far slower than units.
  • Poor usability. Android scores badly on Radio Free Mobile’s Three Laws of Robotics analysis (www.radiofreemobile.com/research). The experience is tricky and frustrating to use and set up and app discovery and use still far lags that of OS or even Windows Phone. 
  • I believe that this is a major factor inhibiting usage and is by far Android’s greatest weakness when it comes to potential market share loss.
  • Fragmentation. Android is very fragmented. So fragmented in fact that I estimate that only 32% of Android devices are really capable of delivering a decent Google experience.
  • With the growth increasingly in the very low-end and in emerging markets, this trend is unlikely to change much going forward.
• This further underpins my view that Android looks very vulnerable.
•  When first time users come to select another handset, all the data I have seen convinces me that they will be open to considering something else as long as it comes at the same price point.
• Here Windows Phone or a mid-range iOS device have scope to take share from Android as their ecosystems score much better when it comes to ease of use and user delight.
• Microsoft, Nokia and Yahoo! remain the companies with most scope to surprise on the upside and are were I would look to get involved when investing in the mobile ecosystem race.