Android – P is for pointless

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5 years to do what takes Apple 90 days.

• Google has released the Android developer preview for Android P (version 9.0) with a series of new features that will take about 5 and half years to fully penetrate Google’s own ecosystem devices.
• By contrast, it takes Apple less than 90 days to update around 90% of all iOS devices that are present in its ecosystem with a new version of iOS.
• This delay means that the cool new features and upgrades invented by Google can be copied by Apple or anyone running an Android fork and supplied to their users 3-4 years before Google can reach its own users.
• In effect Google is investing in R&D on behalf of its competitors and to date its measures to counteract this problem have been ineffective.
• I think that this is because Google is hesitating to take the drastic, and only step, that will work which is to take Android fully proprietary or replace it all together.
• The new features of Android P include:
  • First, notch support: The iPhone X has made having a bite taken out of the display to make way for the front facing camera and other components cool and so the fast-following Android camp is hot on its heels.
  • Hence, the next version of Android needs to add support for this so that apps behave properly when confronted with this oddity.
  • Second, notifications: Android P will include the ability to read and respond to messages in the notification pane making quick and simple replies less time and click consuming.
  • Third, indoor positioning: With the rush to develop indoor maps, this is becoming more important as with AGPS, indoor navigation is virtually useless.
  • Android P will add support for WiFi RTT which measures the ping time between different WiFi hotspots in known locations to calculate the user’s position indoors.
  • This could also add context to smart home control by being able to work out which light is being referred to when the command “turn on the light” is received.
  • This could be an interesting piece of differentiation over Amazon Alexa pushing Google Assistant further forward in terms of user experience in the battle for the smart home (see here).
• While these are solid updates to the Android experience, the fact that they will take around 5 years to fully penetrate Google’s ecosystem based on Android renders them completely pointless until the real problem is addressed.
• I think that the only solution is to take complete control of device updates which is how Apple is able to update all of its devices so quickly.
• This could be achieved either by taking Android proprietary or by replacing Android with something completely new such as Fuchsia (see here).
• Starting again from scratch would give Google the opportunity to fix this problem with the benefit of 20:20 hindsight.
• This is something that Google badly needs as RFM has calculated that there is significant revenue upside for Google from its non-iOS based ecosystem if it were to become a more consistent and controlled environment.
• As growth from mobile begins to slow, this will become increasingly pressing as Alphabet’s valuation continues to demand meaningful revenue growth.
• While Google prevaricates on doing what I believe it must, the likes of Tencent and Baidu are likely to continue their outperformance.