Android in China– No Google here

The China ecosystem is coming. 

• Android is currently exploding in China but there are plenty of signs that this is temporary.
• Under Google’s definition, anything that does not meet its specification cannot be called Android and this where the vast majority of the cheap Android devices find themselves.
• While the market is growing like crazy, there is not much that can be done, but already the Chinese government is casting a disapproving eye on American technology sweeping across its mobile networks.
• The Chinese market is more than big enough to support several ecosystems which combined with a strong desire to use home grown technology means that a huge fork in Android is coming.
• This has already been tried unsuccessfully with oPhone and here I believe that China has learned from its mistakes.
• oPhone was successfully killed by Google by accelerating its release schedule and making the oPhone code line obsolete but that won’t work for ever.
• Hence, I suspect that the next few years will see China move either to its own version of Android or something completely different.
• This fork will rip out all of the Google hooks and replace them with applications and content relevant to the local market.
• This would have the benefit of appealing to local users but most importantly, the user data would be collected by Chinese companies such as Baidu and used to sell targeted advertising locally.
• Out goes Google in comes Baidu. Out goes Twitter, in comes Weibo. Out goes Ebay and in comes Taobao and so on.
• The one that might just make it through is Facebook and that’s only because it is built around users which by definition already makes it local.
• It does not necessarily have to be Android and I can see three possibilities for replacing Android.
  • A permanent and irrevocable fork of Android. This would no longer be Android but something else and I would classify this as a totally different ecosystem.
  • Software based on Linux that is being co-developed by Huawei and Baidu. They won’t say what it is but it could be either the Android fork above or Ubuntu below.
  • Canonical is working together with MIIT in China to define a new reference architecture for operating systems in China.
  • Canonical’s Ubuntu has been selected as the basis for that reference architecture and modifications will be made to make it relevant for China.
  • I think it will be aimed at PCs through tablets to mobile devices.
  • Right now it will be open to encourage support but I am pretty certain once it gets some traction, it will be rapidly closed down.
• Any one of these options could become the China ecosystem.
• The only thing I don’t know is which one and when.