Amazon Automotive – Stuck in the box

Alexa’s access to the vehicle is strictly limited.

  • Amazon has grand plans for the vehicle but until it can convince OEMs of its benign intentions, Alexa will be a simple voice assistant that is also present in the car.
  • If its demonstration area is anything to go by, Amazon clearly intends for Alexa to be able to control every aspect of the vehicle bringing together the smart home, the vehicle and Digital Life in one place.
  • From a user perspective having a single voice assistant that can do everything is a great proposition, but the problem is that everyone wants to provide that assistant.
  • This is because an assistant that can do everything also knows everything which means that it will have access to the most valuable and monetisable data.
  • This is what the wrangling is all about because the monetisation of this data is essential to the OEMs long term survival and is also a target for digital ecosystems to find more avenues of growth and sustain their valuations.
  • Amazon’s demonstration (see here) shows Alexa being capable of winding down the windows, controlling navigation, remote vehicle start-up, turning on autonomous drive mode and so on.
  • In order to have this level of functionality, Alexa needs to have full access to the vehicle systems which means deep integration into the infotainment system and CAN Bus network.
  • However, this is very far from reality today.
  • Vehicles that have Alexa in them today are very little more than an Amazon Echo Dot embedded into the dashboard with a physical connection to the vehicle’s microphone and speakers.
  • This is because vehicle makers are rightly wary about Amazon and are concerned that in the long-term, the effect of letting Amazon in will be the same as Google.
  • The only vehicle that comes close to Amazon’s ambition is Byton (and Amazon’s demo looks close to the Byton screen set-up) but even here, Alexa is still stuck in her box.
  • In Byton vehicles, Alexa has access to the Byton assistant which, in turn, has full access to all of the functions of the vehicle.
  • This means that Byton can control exactly what Alexa has access to and what data it can gather from the vehicle.
  • To give Amazon unfettered access would make no sense because Byton thinks of itself as a digital company where the vehicle is the method by which to bring its services to the user.
  • Consequently, letting Amazon in would be the equivalent of letting the fox loose in the hen house.
  • Many other vehicle makers have taken a similar view, and Alexa in the vehicle is pretty much the same as the aftermarket unit that is placed upon the dashboard with internet access from a smartphone.
  • Amazon says that deeper integration with the vehicle is coming, but in the current climate, I do not see vehicle makers opening themselves up to much deeper integration with Amazon any time soon.
  • Amazon has an increasingly large and fast-growing digital advertising business as well as an increasingly strong presence in the home and on the television.
  • Consequently, adding the vehicle to that would be another touchpoint for Amazon to entice users to buy more of their products through its service as well as participate in its digital ecosystem.
  • In this vision, there is more space for the vehicle maker than there is in Google’s vision, but the vehicle maker would still be very much the junior partner and at risk of commoditisation.
  • Furthermore, Amazon has a habit of squeezing its partners when it gains the upper hand (3rd party merchants) and there is a strong possibility that the vehicle makers would end up in the same position.
  • This is why I continue to favour a neutral 3rd party partner where the interests of the vehicle maker and the partner are fully aligned as the best option for vehicle makers.
  • The issue here, of course, is the user experience and the digital ecosystem services which a neutral 3rd party will have to bring into the vehicle without compromising the OEM’s position as a provider or enabler of digital services in the vehicle.
  • There will be very few prizes for 2nd place.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.