Apple – In vogue.

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It is now increasingly unlikely that Apple will launch an iWatch this year.

  • The wires are alive with the news that Apple has hired former Yves Saint Laurent CEO, Paul Deneve to run special projects within the company.
  • Paul Deneve will be working on “special projects” and will report directly to Tim Cook.
  • This is not a replacement for the head of retail but a position that has clearly been created to look at branding and selling products at premium prices.
  • A project such as the long rumoured iWatch would fall directly under his remit and as a result anything that was in the pipe will now be under review.
  • I have been sceptical on the iWatch simply because watches are the height of fashion and Apple’s brand is not even close to being exclusive enough to make a watch product successful.
  • Furthermore, this product would simply be a remote control for an iPhone which has been tried with little success on numerous occasions.
  • The problem with Apple’s brand is that it is a victim of its own success.
  • It is now so widely owned, that it is no longer exclusive and highly desirable and as a result is now looking a bit tired and old.
  • Yves Saint Laurent by contrast is much older than Apple but still manages to charge $000s for women’s clothing and handbags.
  • I suspect that it is the secret of keeping a brand exclusive while being widely recognised is what Apple is after.
  • Hence, I expect that all projects around wearables will now fall under Paul Deneve.
  • It is not impossible that Apple follows Nokia down the Vertu route and creates a new brand around fashionable technology accessories.
  • Whatever Paul Deneve gets up to, it is unlikely to impact that short term outlook for Apple.
  • Here, I am increasingly concerned that the iPhone 5S will be a minor update leaving Apple’s new device looking dated before it even hits the shops.
  • I am also sceptical as to whether Apple will launch a mid-range device this year.
  • If this was to be the case, the supply chain would need to be ramping up production now but it has been uncharacteristically quiet on the issue.
  • Hence, there are no catalysts to drive the shares this side of 2014 and I suspect they are likely to remain very cheap for a while yet.
  • Apple fails to excite me one or the other at the moment.

RICHARD WINDSOR

Richard is founder, owner of research company, Radio Free Mobile. He has 16 years of experience working in sell side equity research. During his 11 year tenure at Nomura Securities, he focused on the equity coverage of the Global Technology sector.

Blog Comments

> “Apple’s brand is not even close to being exclusive enough to make a watch product successful.”

“We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.” Ed Colligan, CEO of Palm Inc., 2 months before iPhone was introduced.

> “It is now so widely owned, that it is no longer exclusive and highly desirable”
Anybody can sell luxury to a few rich people. Selling luxury to the masses is the real genius. 🙂

fair enough…actually I think selling luxury is very difficult you have to balance high sales needed to succeed with exclusiveness…this is very difficult IMHO.

I actually think you are usually spot on and I agree that he is essentially the project manager for wearables so no release this year. Where I think you are not right here is what Apple has always been about. How to create something of value that while it may seem dearer than category competitors is seen as actually a quality premium item worth paying for. Eg. aluminium instead of plastic phones, glass touch pads on their laptops etc. and countless other small decisions focused on design show this.

True…with the exception that the current iPhone generation and the next one in all likelihood look tired and old when compared to the Korean offerings in the same price bracket. Something has to change to get that desirability back otherwise ASPs are going to tank…