Tablets – Numbered Days?

BlackBerry might be right but it is for the wrong reasons. 

• During an interview connected during the launch of the Q10, BlackBerry CEO Torsten Heins mentioned that he saw a limited future for tablet computers.
• He thinks that in the future the market will polarise to large screens at home or office but smaller ones when out and about.
• His view is that this is because tablets are not a good business model.
• For him, that’s certainly true but that is because his company has produced a poor tablet experience that costs just as much as everyone else’s.
• It is no wonder he is losing money on tablets but that in no way means that the tablet business model as its stands today is broken.
• Quite the contrary, Apple generates plenty of cash from tablets and looks set to continue doing so.
• Despite this, I think he may be right but for all the wrong reasons.
• The tablet market and to a large degree, the smartphone market, is driven by screen size.
• A larger screen makes certain tasks much easier and in terms of content consumption, much more enjoyable.
• This is why I believe that one can buy a tablet or a smartphone in almost any screen size from 11 inches all the way down to 2.
• However what would happen if one could fold or roll up a 10-inch display into much more compact form factor?
• I think that all the current form factors would suddenly look very clunky and inconvenient compared to a much smaller device where one could extract a much larger screen when needed.
• This would allow a more portable device with no need for case that can still bestow the advantages of a larger screen.
• This is where I see the future of foldable and bendable screens going in the very long-term (5-10+ years).
• It will re-segment the market back to smartphones and larger computers meaning that the form factors that are now all the rage would disappear.
• This represents a major disruption and one where I can see market dominance changing hands once again.
• At the moment Samsung looks likes it has the edge in flexible screen technology but I suspect that LGD will catch up allowing Samsung’s competitors to compete on a level playing field.
• It is the innovation around how one implements and uses this kind of technology that will drive the change and it is this is what I am looking for rather than just buying the owner of the technology itself.
• This is particularly the case as typically, this kind of innovation has not been a strength of Asian based companies but there is time for things to change.