Samsung & Huawei – Nasty origami pt. III.

Samsung plays the waiting game.

• Samsung is still clearly struggling with the Galaxy Fold but I suspect that behind the scenes, it is waiting to see how the situation for Huawei’s Mate X pans out.
• Samsung has made a very vague statement regarding the launch of the Galaxy Fold saying that it will announce the new launch date in the coming weeks.
• This strongly implies that Samsung is not yet comfortable with the modifications that it is making to the Galaxy Fold to make it more durable as a result of the weaknesses uncovered by reviewers (see here).
• Huawei’s device (Mate X) which launched earlier this year is expected to go on sale at in China this month with availability in the UK in Q3 2019.
• Critically, the Mate X has not been subjected to the kind of reviewer abuse that the Galaxy Fold received, which I think is why its critical flaw has not come to light.
• This flaw is the fact that the foldable screen will be on the outside of the device when it is closed and is in a pocket or handbag.
• Most smartphones today use tempered glass to protect the screen from scratching.
• On a flexible screen, this is obviously not possible which is why everyone is using plastic.
• The Mohs scale measures the hardness of materials (scratchability) and tempered glass scratches at level 6 with deeper grooves at level 7.
• Plastic, by contrast, scratches at a level 2 or 3 meaning that the screen of a foldable phone could end up being 3-5x more scratchable than a regular smartphone.
• Samsung has got around this problem by putting the screen on the inside, so it is protected when closed, but Huawei’s is on the outside.
• Having the screen on the outside gives a better use case and slimmer form factor, but it exposes the screen to a much harsher environment.
• If the screen is very easy to scratch, this will prove to be a more serious problem than the one that Samsung has faced.
• Hence, I suspect that Samsung is waiting for the Mate X to go on sale and for everyone to realise how fragile its screen is before committing to a launch date for the Galaxy Fold.
• If the Mate X proves to be as fragile as I think it is, then Samsung may even be able to get away with cancelling the device in its entirety and starting again.
• Hence, I don’t think there will be much visibility on the Galaxy Fold until the Mate X is in the hands of real users and it becomes clear just how fragile or not this design choice is.
• This delay in folding screen viability is likely to mean that the smartphone replacement cycle continues to lengthen meaning a decline in the smartphone market in 2019 with stabilization in 2020.
• I continue to have no desire to own anything related to the selling of smartphones (except Qualcomm) this year.