Google – The rule of 99.9%.

75% of almost zero is still almost zero.

• Google is making some noise about how quickly Pixel users are upgrading to Android Pie (version 9), but their numbers are so tiny that they don’t even warrant a mention on Android’s own developer website.
• Furthermore, when one looks at Oreo (Android 8), it becomes clear that devices are being upgraded more slowly now than ever before indicating that the software update problem is going from bad to worse.
• Google has announced that 75% of pixel owners are now running Android P (see here) having upgraded in the 71 days since it became available which is on par with what one would expect for iOS.
• This comes as no surprise as, like Apple, Google has full control of the software on Pixel devices meaning that it can push updates from its servers as soon as they are ready.
• Furthermore, as the OS and the user experience have been created by the same company, there is no need to tinker with the standard code to make sure it works properly, greatly speeding the process.
• Google is also pushing a series of functionality upgrades to Pixel owners giving them a great incentive to make the upgrade.
• Unfortunately for Google, this success is completely irrelevant.
• In 2018, RFM estimates that Google will generate around $25bn in mobile advertising revenues from Android devices but more than 99.9% of these revenues will come from other devices.
• The story for the 99.9% is very different because only 19.2% of them are even running last year’s version (Android 8).
• This means that 80.8% of Google own ecosystem devices are running software that is at more than 2 years old.
• I have long believed that the real opportunity for Google to grow revenues is to improve the user experience on the devices that generate its revenues so that they generate more traffic, giving an opportunity to increase the revenue generated.
• This could be achieved by taking much greater control of the Android software as well as the updating process.
• Google has shown very little willingness or ability to do this and so I don’t think that this problem is going anywhere soon.
• Therefore, Pixel devices and the revenues they generate will remain completely irrelevant for the foreseeable future.
• If Google really wants to have an impact with its great new services it should be using Samsung to distribute them, but seeing as both companies have a bad case of engineering disease (see here), this is not going to happen anytime soon.
• This is disappointing as I think this remains the Android camp’s best shot at putting pressure on the iOS ecosystem.