Magic Leap – The reality gap.

Magic Leap’s developer video reveals the chasm between promise and reality

• In its latest video (see here), Magic Leap has demonstrated some of the basic characteristics of how to create content in its system but also shown just how far away the experience is from what was promised a few years ago.
• Magic Leap is a secretive start-up that is pretty much the only augmented reality (AR) start-up that is still focusing on the consumer.
• This massively increases the size of its addressable market but also creates much greater obstacles to being a commercial success than its competitors who have all pivoted to the enterprise.
• This is because, in the consumer market, the user pays for the experience meaning that if it is poor, he simply will not buy the product. In the enterprise, the user is paid to have the experience meaning that as long as there is a productivity benefit the creator of the experience can get away with something second rate.
• Given the technical limitations that still plague AR (see here), the experience remains uncompelling explaining everyone but Magic Leap’s pivot to the enterprise.
• Consequently, to be successful, Magic Leap needs to fulfil the promises that it made when it was raising money. From where the experience is today, users are going to be disappointed.
• There are two main reasons for this:
  • First, letterboxing: AR systems today are incapable of super-imposing the virtual world upon the real to give a full frame experience.
  • In effect, the user has a virtual screen in front of him which completely destroys any notion of an immersive experience.
  • Second, resolution and refresh rate: From the developer video, both the resolution of the graphics and the refresh rate look to be way below what one would expect of graphics that can offer a convincing and immersive experience.
• The net result is that when the Magic One ships to content creators sometime during the summer months, the limitations of what Magic One has been able to create will become clear.
• There is a good chance that Magic Leap will be able to come up with a product that will appeal to the consumer, but it’s going to take a lot more time and miniaturization to get there.
• In this environment, it is difficult to see how a developer writing apps for the Magic Leap One can hope to make a return on its investment.
• Consequently, A lot of demand for this product is likely to be from competitors eager to take it to pieces to find out what Google and others have spent billions of dollars on.
• For everyone else, it remains enterprise or bust.

Reply to this post