Virtual Reality – Endless funk

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Even Oculus doesn’t believe the hype.

• Oculus has sent the surest signal yet that all is not well with virtual reality (VR) in a move that can only be interpreted as an admission that VR is far from being able to live up to the expectations that have been set for it.
• Oculus has updated its policy for its app store that allows a user who is dissatisfied with something that he has purchased in the store to get a no questions asked refund.
• This applies to both Oculus Rift and Gear VR content subject to the following:
  • First: The user can not have spent more than 2 hours using the content (30 mins Gear VR).
  • Second: The application for refund must be made within 14 days (2 days Gear VR).
  • Third: The refund does not cover movies or content that is bought as part of a bundle although the whole bundle appears to be covered.
• This generous policy is an indication that the experience offered by VR is far from satisfactory which is hurting both hardware shipments and software revenues.
• Hence, in order to keep interest in the platform and prevent disgruntled users from chucking the device in drawer, it has to offer a sale or return policy that is almost unheard of in software.
• It is clear to me that the problems that have plagued VR since its inception are still far from being solved.
• These are:
  • Price: Many of the devices cost several hundreds of dollars and also require a PC to run, further increasing the cost.
  • Sony is the one exception which is why I am pretty sure that it is currently the runaway leader albeit in a very small market.
  • Clunky: VR and AR units are still large, clunky and uncomfortable to wear.
  • In many cases they also make the user feel foolish when wearing one.
  • Comfort and security: VR cuts the user off from almost all sensory inputs from his immediate environment severely limiting the situations in which the user would feel comfortable using one.
  • Many units also cause feelings of nausea due to an imperfect replication of the real world compared to what the brain is expecting.
  • Cable: Many units require an HDMI cable which prevents the user from moving and also increases the risk of a fall should the user trip over the cable.
  • Content: Both games and content remain in short supply and of poor quality necessitating the Oculus shift in policy.
• The net result is that VR is clearly still far from ready prime time and there remains a lot of work to do before volumes will really take off.
• I do not see this happening in 2017 meaning that the outlook for next year remains pretty grim.
• This is why I see the likes of Facebook and Apple pivoting their consumer offerings towards viewing and interacting with a virtual world through the camera of a smartphone rather than with a head unit.
• Augmented Reality has more problems than VR but the case for it in the enterprise remains strong.
• This is because there are immediate productivity benefits to be had from deploying a unit to parts of the work force and critically, in the enterprise one can get away with a poor user experience.
• This is because users are paid to have the experience meaning that they are willing to endure the shortcomings listed above.
• The net result is that I think VR will continue to disappoint with all the action in the short-term remaining squarely in AR.