Apple is starting to lose some of its gloss as the youthful trendsetters seem to have moved onto Samsung and, believe it or not, the Microsoft Surface.
- When you have had the coolest, most popular products for a good while, there is only one place to go.
- Furthermore, when everyone has the cool product (definition of huge success) it no longer becomes cool and people start to look for something else.
- Two trends seem to be working against Apple in the younger generation:
- First, the rock solid conviction that it does not want to be like its elders.
- Second, the fact that its ends up with older generation’s hand-me-downs which are, to them, the un-coolest products available.
- Recent surveys and polls are pointing to a cooling off of the younger generation towards Apple but there is still reasonable demand.
- Most to blame for this seems to be Samsung whose products are becoming increasingly desired in their own right but also are more accessible to the younger, less affluent generation.
- Incredibly, the Microsoft Surface has appeared in some of these surveys, but I have to admit to scepticism, as these devices have hardly flown off the shelves.
- There are also signs of the market slowing down in Apple’s segments as it appears that there have been heavy cuts to orders for iPhone 5 components from Asia.
- The reliability of this kind of data is highly questionable as one has no idea of existing stock, inventory and so forth.
- Hence, an order cut only gives one a fragment the real situation.
- The other issue is that the normal sources of these sorts of stories are currently quiet, which to me significantly reduces the credibility of this data.
- Add to this the unreliability of order data in predicting performance at earnings results, and I am prevented from drawing any meaningful conclusion from this data.
- Black Friday data was quite positive indicating that consumers have been spending quite nicely albeit being as price sensitive as ever.
- Given, that other categories of consumer electronics like PCs continue to struggle, one has to believe that it continues to be smartphones and tablets that have led the way.
- Samsung has reported excellent preliminary results but this was more about profitability than it was about sales, leaving the possibility that Apple has taken much of the consumer spend and had a very strong calendar Q4.
- The smartphone market will certainly slow down this year, but a great quarter from Apple should give those most nervous some degree of comfort.
