Microsoft – Beautiful disaster.

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The disaster of Windows 8 can be made an advantage.

• The degree with which Windows 8 has failed to capture the imagination of users is clear when one looks at the distribution of Windows versions across the PC industry.
• The latest data from NetMarketShare shows that despite being in the market for 2 ½ years, Windows 8 is still less popular than the operating system that Microsoft discontinued support for last year.
• To add insult to injury, over the last 12 months Windows 8’s share of Windows PCs has actually declined from 11.3% to 10.6% despite being the newest OS that Microsoft has to offer.
• I suspect that the main reason for this decline was the spike in corporate upgrades caused by the ending of Windows XP support and a surge in Windows 7 purchasing.
• While the performance of Windows 8 is embarrassing, it has also set the bar very low for Windows 10 and it is here that I am hopeful.
• Microsoft’s OS versions seem to alternate between disaster and triumph.
• The excellent Windows XP was followed by the awful Windows Vista which was followed by the superb Windows 7 and then the disastrous Windows 8.
• I suspect the reason for this is that when Microsoft gets close to a launch deadline for a new product, it starts dropping features and cutting corners in order to make the release date.
• This results in an awful release that Microsoft spends the next 2 years fixing.
• Hence Windows 7 was what Vista was supposed to be and there is every sign that Windows 10 be everything that Windows 8 should have been.
• This combined with the fact that the upgrade to Windows 10 will be free for 70% of the installed base should mean a pretty rapid upgrade cycle making Windows 10 by far the leading version.
• Having much greater uniformity across the installed base and having the latest code as the leading version will do a lot for Microsoft’s ecosystem ambitions.
• Windows 10 has a common code base between all of the devices upon which Microsoft software is installed, allowing apps to run across all devices.
• This will significantly increase the attractiveness of developing apps for Windows devices as the addressable market will be that much bigger.
• Furthermore, a common code base will ensure that the ecosystem is more recognisable, easier and more fun to use regardless of which device the user is currently logged onto.
• The main thrust of Microsoft’s ecosystem strategy is to offer great Digital Life and Digital Work services on every platform and over time entice the user to come back to a Microsoft device.
• If the entire business moves towards subscription (Xbox Live and Office 365 are examples), the operating system sale will become less and less important.
• Finally, as Windows 8 is one of the least successful releases in Microsoft’s history the bar has been set very low for Windows 10.
• With low expectations and a favourable environment, Windows 10 should be a catalyst that begins to allow Microsoft to realise its potential.
• Microsoft and Google remain my top choices in the digital mobile ecosystem.