Google I/O – First Blood

OpenAI draws first blood in the competition against Google.

• Google continues to struggle with its messaging as OpenAI was able to deliver more in 30 minutes than Google did in a long, rambling and discombobulated 2 hours.
• If Google intended to amaze and astound then it failed badly, but it did manage to deliver a solid set of updates that will ensure that its ecosystem services remain the best available which is crucial as these are the engine of its revenue generation.
  • First, numerical updates: Here, Google stated that it has 1m developers using Gemini in some way or another which is great but then went on to say that only 1m users had signed up to use Gemini which is pretty poor.
  • However, this excludes the billions of users who have Android phones where Google has an opportunity to reach them directly by updating the Android OS they are using.
  • Google did not announce a huge new model but did expand its lead in context in terms of increasing the context limit to 2m tokens from the 1m where it is today.
  • This is important for the heavy enterprise use cases but for the average digital ecosystem user, this will make no difference whatsoever.
  • Second user experience: which OpenAI put front and centre, but Google was much less clear on.
  • Here, Google is introducing a new model called Gemini 1.5 Flash which still runs in the cloud but has been optimised for speed as Google has recognised that responsiveness is going to be key going forward (see below: voice).
  • Google will also update its on-device model, Gemini Nano, so that it is properly multimodal in terms of input capability as well as more responsive thanks to being on device.
  • Third, Voice: which was an important part of all of the demos but nowhere did Google really push voice as being an important aspect of the user experience as OpenAI did.
  • Google introduced the ability to interrupt the model which adds to the natural experience, but because OpenAI introduced it first, it will get credit for it even if it borrowed the idea from Google in the first place.
  • The main takeaway here is that two of the big AI providers think that voice is going to be important which is something with which I completely agree.
  • The best use case for a system that is good at natural language is to use it as a man-machine interface and RFM Research has long identified this as one of the best use cases for LLMs.
  • Fourth, Open Source: Driven by Meta, Google is being forced into the open source where it has a 2bn and 7bn variant of Gemini available which it calls Gemma.
  • Google is updating its offering here and will also add a 27bn variant in response to developer requests, but I have doubts about whether it will displace Llama which is already the standard for open-source generative AI development.
  • Fifth, Android: which for the first time ever pushed the actual updates to the OS into day 2 and instead focused on Gemini’s integration into the OS.
  • There are some interesting advantages here as Gemini can now be contextually aware making using it in the context of what the user is doing easier and more natural.
  • It is also a point of differentiation over iOS where Apple still has nothing outside of the execrable Siri but is expected to announce something with OpenAI at WWDC in June.
  • Google is expecting to have Gemini embedded into 200m devices by the end of 2024 in a sign of just how powerful controlling the platform can be.
  • This is Google’s best shot at dominating the AI ecosystem because if users start to use Gemini and like it, then developers will be more inclined to develop to Gemini as opposed to GPT or any of the other foundation models.
• When one looks under the surface of this disjointed performance, it is clear that Google is one of the leaders in AI and given the ecosystem that it already has, it has the best shot at dominating this space.
• However, OpenAI and Microsoft are now really good at getting under Google’s skin and making the most of the fact that Google is an engineering-led organisation which is not very good at marketing its own prowess.
• This alliance is clear and explains why OpenAI only launched ChatGPT for the Mac leaving the space open for Microsoft’s Copilot which is based on the same technology.
• Despite another clumsy performance, Google has a strong position in the AI ecosystem claiming that 1m developers are already using Gemini.
• Google did not clarify how many of these are actually building generative AI on Gemini as opposed to using it to write regular apps but either way, it’s a good number.
• This puts Google ahead in terms of the race for the AI ecosystem, but OpenAI is punching well above its weight and has global user recognition of the ChatGPT brand also putting it in a strong position.
• OpenAI and Microsoft have also made Google look like a laggard on numerous occasions and have done so yet again this week, but this is just the first battle in a war that will last for several years.,
• Microsoft and Apple have yet to lay out their wares for generative AI but I/O evidenced good and steady progress at Google even if it remains very poor at getting the message across.