10Forward – Gamification of Research

RFM reviews Star’s 10-year vision report.

• The 10Forward (​see here​) from Star is an unusual report that encourages the reader to influence the outcome and is designed to ignite thought and debate as opposed to a turgid set of predictions.
• ​Star​ is a global technology consultancy that defines, designs and develops digital solutions and connected experiences for disruptive startups and ambitious enterprise
• RFM has worked with Star numerous times over the last 5 years and moderated the ​10FWD launch​ event a few months ago.
• Its latest report is a 10-year vision laying out four future scenarios shaped by the interplay of technology, society and business and how they will impact the automotive, financial services and healthcare sectors.
• 10Forward features interactive elements, including quizzes and a virtual world where readers can click around to uncover various sub-scenarios. This immersive experience offers personalized insights, deepening readers’ understanding and visualization of potential futures.
• The 4 socio-economic outcomes are portrayed as graphically engaging worlds where technology innovation and prosperity is either high or low and all of the combinations in between.
• The result is a very wide spectrum varying from the Mad Max-like Wastelandia to Ecolysium which is a utopian outcome where technology innovation has substantially improved prosperity and quality of life for everyone on the planet.
• None of these worlds are explicit forecasts but extreme examples of what the world might look like in 10 years and within each scenario the impact on the automotive, financial services and healthcare sectors are examined.
  • Financial services which is going to be an important sector whatever the socio-economic outcome is going forward.
  • The banking sector is globally slow and inefficient and with a heavy regulatory environment, change comes slowly.
  • However, it is clear that Blockchain has a role to play in all scenarios as it can deal with scenarios where there is no trust or in enabling fractional ownership to improve financial inclusiveness.
  • Fintech has changed beyond recognition over the last 20 years and there is every reason to think that there will be even more fundamental change over the next 10.
  • Healthcare varies very widely as one switches between the four socio-economic outcomes.
  • In Ecolysium (utopia) all patient data is secure, private but also completely interoperable meaning that the best diagnosis and therapy can be delivered by having a complete set of consistent data.
  • Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale, data is fragmented and unreliable with unregulated procedures being carried out at the patient’s risk.
  • However, in every outcome, Healthcare will become far more digitised than it is today with one of the greatest opportunities lying in remote monitoring allowing early detection and mitigation of most of the big harms in the developed world.
  • Automotive and Mobility which is already in the throes of great change switching from fuel-powered transport to electric.
  • Electrified transport features heavily in all of the outcomes but there are different grades of public transport depending on one’s social status in Neotropia to a completely integrated transport system of autonomous, silent and clean transport options in Ecolysium.
  • Only in Wastelandia is fuel envisaged to persist in the long-term but even there, when EVs become much cheaper to buy and maintain, it is likely to penetrate into the lowest income groups.
  • This is all predicated on a plentiful and clean supply of electricity which is the one thing that may well delay the penetration of EV in Wastelandia even if the EV is nominally cheaper.
  • The other is cost as EV’s of a similar trim level and performance are still more expensive than their petrol counterparts and more troublesome to own.
  • These issues are likely to be overcome with time and so the transition to electrified transportation is still very much the future, but it might take somewhat longer than many expect and that this report envisages (10 years).
• 10FWD is not a linear report but has been gamified in that the reader or the player can choose the outcome that most closely matches their view and then drill into the specific sectors and see how the themes that drive each sector are impacted.
• The report is graphically rich and largely succeeds in being more engaging than typical research and as a result keeps the themes at a fairly high level.
• 10FWD equips you with the tools and framework to navigate uncertainty and make strategic decisions that position your organization for long-term success. ​Download the 10FWD playbook​ and discover more trends and actionable recommendations that will shape our world in the decade to come.