Research Publication – The Metaverse Vol. II – Pilgrims’ progress

8th June 2022: RFM extends its metaverse coverage with the publication of Digital Ecosystems – The Metaverse – Vol. II – Pilgrims’ progress. RFM subscribers will receive their copy via email.  

The Metaverse pilgrimage is just beginning, and the journey will be hard. RFM has adapted its digital ecosystem methodology to assess the pilgrims. Meta remains by far the current leader, but Roblox and Fortnite are close behind. Apple and Google have very little at the moment and Microsoft appears to be rethinking its entire position. Enterprise and China will be covered in Vol. III.

• The pilgrimage. The journey to Canterbury or Mecca is just getting started as The Metaverse in 2022 is roughly where smartphones were in 2001. RFM continues to believe that it will be 2028 or 2029 before volumes really start to take off. In the meantime, it is going to be a long, hard and expensive road to the holy land, and many will not make it.
• The pilgrims. Many pilgrims intend to create the Metaverse, and this research puts these offerings under the microscope using RFM’s long-established methodology.
• Digital Life of the Metaverse. The Metaverse is currently used for Gaming and a bit of 3D Media Consumption. If it takes off, most of the other Digital Life services and many new ones are likely to migrate there. RFM assesses how well the pilgrims address the opportunity today and how well their services will be able to cater to growing engagement with the Metaverse.
• The 8 Laws of Robotics of the Metaverse which measure the quality of the digital ecosystem. The key to achieving traction will be improvements in the user experience and so RFM has also looked at the 4 core UX laws separately from the others. This gives a better measure of when one could realistically expect the Metaverse to start replacing smartphones.
• The leaders. Meta with its relatively good user experience and low price is by far the early leader but the thriving ecosystems of Fortnite, Roblox and Minecraft are in hot pursuit. Although these offerings are not available in the Metaverse yet, their 3D environments and their large and engaged user numbers put them in a strong position when it begins.
• The laggards. The big players (except Meta) are at the back of the pack. Apple and Google have said very little about the Metaverse while Microsoft, despite its strong portfolio of assets, appears to be in the midst of a big rethink in terms of just what it intends its offering to be.
• III (1): Enterprise. The Metaverse is likely to make its first appearance in the enterprise due to the much lower bar in terms of the quality of the user experience. As long as there is a productivity gain, RFM thinks that the enterprise will make use of the Metaverse.
• Vol. III (2): China. The ideological struggle between China and the USA is likely to mean that China does a Chinese Metaverse for Chinese users and made by Chinese companies only. Hence, like the mobile ecosystem, China will have its own, isolated version that is not relevant in this volume. China and Enterprise will be covered in more detail in volume III.